TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over62c196,959$122,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,847.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under38c40,000$15,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,200666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under38c20,960$7,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,964.81,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under38c20,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under38c19,886$7,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,556.651154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under38c16,507$6,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,336.973,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under38c15,798$6,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,005.5278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.916251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under38c9,200$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,49616652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2807057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2806459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under38c5,838$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.82,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under38c5,401$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.534854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9002646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under38c4,200$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5961435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under38c2,911$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.0744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under38c2,664$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.791,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over65c2,525$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.781675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under38c2,096$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.489951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under34c1,984$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.585145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under38c1,722$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.3617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Over62c1,600$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6089048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under38c1,600$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6088764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac75…a9e9backed Over62c1,600$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Over66c1,245$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.245152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under37c1,025$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.255133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3808251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under38c921$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.989459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under38c900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34222854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under38c900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under38c900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3428864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under14c847.55$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.37335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under38c800$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30412162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Under40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Over52c721.33$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.164143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under38c720$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.614355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under38c700$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26613957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under38c609.62$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22819254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2288461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22824258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22812858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Under38c582.54$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.378253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under38c560$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.812757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under2c530.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62437.5%9 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+187.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under37c509$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1218545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Under40c500.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19011860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19025659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Under40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-58.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over60c486.5$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.610553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de1…35f3backed Over63c440.14$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under37c410.35$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40a1…d943backed Under35c385.91$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under38c360$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.211458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.26556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.213859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.211259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.212458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.212358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.211563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under38c320$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.610360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under38c307.89$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11725850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e3…42f1backed Over65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1148261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1146959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…6769backed Under35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under37c270.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.976450%32 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under38c270.13$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6517456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Under38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under38c235.28$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4118746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x170e…aa0dbacked Over65c231.43$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.432860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe09c…f300backed Under38c230.47$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.581050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under38c225$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.515453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Under38c204.32$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.648143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Under38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under35c195.52$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4333340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bb8…71f0backed Under38c160.21$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Under38c160$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.87057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602556%14 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe05b…0912backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2e…44c3backed Under38c149.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.