Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc75afc47ffe02214883e5d78a69371c66ac66de7a84c34d4c16f813715446d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 2,468$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 20c | 1,369$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.8 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 24c | 1,247$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 699.06$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 80c | 380$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 79c | 238.08$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 22c | 183.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 32c | 128.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 118.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 88.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 81.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…0862backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe636…e062backed Under | 58c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…783bbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 54c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 52c | 26.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…e222backed Under | 76c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.