TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7205…3377backed No56c218.18$123 inLost-$122.7545657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedce…28f7backed Yes54c186.23$100 inWon+$86.231637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed Yes39c116.72$46 inWon+$71.156842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No38c87.1$33 inLost-$33.11,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a4a…2c89backed Yes42c84$35 inWon+$48.721145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No63c51.17$32 inLost-$32.2421672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x659f…220cbacked Yes51c50$26 inWon+$24.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c05…fabfbacked No49c50$25 inLost-$24.57673.7%56 W · 20 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed Yes62c48.02$30 inWon+$18.0212257.4%70 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x50bb…da3abacked No61c20$12 inLost-$12.22466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.