TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 22.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,746 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Yes44c1,021$444 inWon+$576.75,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed No55c991.05$549 inLost-$549.31540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f7c…e75cbacked Yes52c576.92$300 inWon+$276.921675%12 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+45%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb72…2514backed No53c202.65$107 inLost-$107.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e48…6fd3backed Yes47c170.21$80 inWon+$90.214544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55aa…4f8ebacked No57c160.96$92 inLost-$91.758344.6%37 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf1…8506backed No57c99.72$57 inLost-$56.842951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked No57c87.72$50 inLost-$506040%24 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe285…5754backed Yes47c68.35$32 inWon+$36.231330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3a…4d28backed Yes47c67.43$32 inWon+$35.742055%11 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb0…c9f8backed Yes47c66.87$31 inWon+$35.441752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9617…415fbacked No57c57.53$33 inLost-$32.791546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Yes52c48.32$25 inWon+$23.3237352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7808…3046backed No57c46.86$27 inLost-$26.716055%33 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Yes45c45$20 inWon+$24.757361.6%45 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No48c35.76$17 inLost-$17.162,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60df…7092backed No57c29.89$17 inLost-$17.0411752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed No57c23.07$13 inLost-$13.1512541.6%52 W · 73 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d4d…d33fbacked No55c23$13 inLost-$12.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce16…749fbacked No57c22.02$13 inLost-$12.5511755.6%65 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed No55c22$12 inLost-$12.13441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb122…8405backed No57c20.72$12 inLost-$11.815040%20 W · 30 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8775…a0fdbacked No57c18.75$11 inLost-$10.692842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.