Olympics · resolved market
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2d5ce942a2d36b08a46e47b07a4e27e45950d755694961b1e5bbd62b952867
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,820$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 7c | 1,048$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc027…eb78backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed No | 20c | 482$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 79c | 370$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 79c | 325.51$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 281.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed No | 20c | 279$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327c…f1b0backed No | 24c | 254.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 79c | 250.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 249.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 10c | 200.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 75c | 199.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 180.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 69c | 156.23$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed No | 14c | 140.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked No | 18c | 129.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 11c | 102.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…a87fbacked No | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 74c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 73c | 90.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 79c | 89.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…b091backed No | 18c | 77.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 50c | 69.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 23c | 54.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 78c | 49.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 48.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…e757backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…690abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Damien Zurek (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Jenning De Boo (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Joep Wennemars (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Kjeld Nuis (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Piotr Michalski (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.