Olympics · resolved market
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34407edde9dc9f3b699fda9a854f2bb8b6a06b5b77fec53e46430a431a51e7a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,868$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 71c | 1,377$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.3 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 68c | 1,008$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.24 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 70c | 1,002$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.12 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed Yes | 39c | 974.16$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.76 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 20c | 934$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 14c | 456.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 46c | 394.01$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 46c | 394.01$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 32c | 376$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 34c | 297.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…25cabacked Yes | 51c | 292.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 54c | 284$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 27c | 276.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 70c | 273$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 16c | 264$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 60c | 262.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 46c | 260$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 46c | 241.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 44c | 234.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 229.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed No | 62c | 215.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 27c | 204.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 45c | 162.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 55c | 124$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Yes | 41c | 115.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…fa57backed Yes | 18c | 106.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 106$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 44c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 58c | 87.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 50c | 80.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3395…7c66backed Yes | 29c | 73.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 64c | 62.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 79c | 61.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…db9ebacked Yes | 33c | 61.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 49c | 60.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…ab2abacked Yes | 27c | 57.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a2…bef8backed Yes | 57c | 56.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…a35abacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…92f6backed Yes | 42c | 47.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 68c | 46.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…e126backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa220…3c23backed No | 71c | 37.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…d821backed No | 71c | 36.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…0bebbacked No | 72c | 35.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Yes | 59c | 34.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9aa…9501backed No | 73c | 34.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 77c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a590backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…32cdbacked No | 71c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…368fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea7…ec88backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 64c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will South Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.