Olympics · resolved market
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f49e614500fac7067d42b6d09a44da83e9cbf9aa25dfdba018a5a2c915945c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 4,879$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.89 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,130$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.91 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed No | 4c | 1,700$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed Yes | 45c | 1,681$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 1,557$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.09 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,307$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 42c | 999.99$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.99 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 14c | 768.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 14cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 51c | 694.24$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.87 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 47c | 508.91$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 23c | 494.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 18c | 412.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.23 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 361.04$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.19 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eca…bafdbacked Yes | 74c | 323.65$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 53c | 301.7$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 65c | 300.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c626backed Yes | 72c | 250.26$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 55c | 232.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 24c | 231.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 189.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…f17cbacked Yes | 43c | 179.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 30c | 171.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.62 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 44c | 168.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 44c | 141.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 34c | 140.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 17c | 137.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 48c | 129$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…26d9backed Yes | 64c | 113.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 106.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…465dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…0a06backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 22c | 95.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 53c | 92.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…5ebcbacked Yes | 46c | 87.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 62c | 75.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 36c | 74.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…f9bcbacked Yes | 68c | 73.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 46c | 66.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 78c | 64.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 47c | 60.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…7400backed Yes | 27c | 56.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 56c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9311backed Yes | 70c | 50.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 33c | 48.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…5533backed Yes | 25c | 47.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 55c | 42.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 52c | 41.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…8795backed Yes | 59c | 40.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…d83dbacked Yes | 57c | 40.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa66…0bbfbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…6eafbacked No | 55c | 36.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 53c | 34.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 54c | 33.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 66c | 32.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…fb71backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…ed2fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 16.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…e6dbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will South Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.