Olympics · resolved market
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c810aa263bf674dbcef6ee7029836d0895ed3ea1064334b118577e63f56a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 5c | 5,135$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 59c | 2,697$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.83 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 59c | 1,941$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 69c | 1,030$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.27 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 41c | 999.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 77c | 900$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 32c | 629.41$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 57c | 618.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed Yes | 59c | 511.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 42c | 502.84$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.35 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 50c | 440.41$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.2 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…dfbebacked Yes | 58c | 432.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 361.21$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.14 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…3984backed Yes | 57c | 345.06$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 344.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 38c | 275.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked No | 44c | 270$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…05c1backed No | 8c | 208.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +255.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 69c | 196.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 56c | 195$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 36c | 192.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…2844backed Yes | 59c | 168.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 40c | 129.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 57c | 128.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed No | 40c | 120.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 32c | 111.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…e7c8backed Yes | 56c | 107.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 58c | 103.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf88…fcb0backed No | 45c | 98.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…4af9backed Yes | 62c | 94.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed No | 45c | 93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 56c | 88.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…94a7backed No | 47c | 85.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…682abacked Yes | 55c | 79.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…8c93backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 76.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed No | 35c | 72.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 41c | 63.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 56c | 60.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked No | 48c | 51.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e28…e5efbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…af08backed Yes | 57c | 49.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…7d26backed No | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9601…bd5dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 37c | 39.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…81f9backed Yes | 63c | 39.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb0…8880backed Yes | 68c | 36.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…4d9cbacked No | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…01fcbacked Yes | 59c | 32.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…7e96backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked Yes | 61c | 27.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…9a39backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9c…7a96backed Yes | 71c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…fb69backed Yes | 66c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Bjorn Magnussen (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Cooper Mcleod (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Damien Zurek (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Jenning De Boo (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Joep Wennemars (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Jun-Ho Kim (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Laurent Dubreuil (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.