TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Damien Zurek (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes13c2,008$266 inLost-$265.986923.2%16 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes15c697.5$103 inLost-$102.514641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes13c451.7$57 inLost-$56.538237.8%31 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes23c399.53$92 inLost-$91.895242.3%22 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No77c339$261 inWon+$77.971625%4 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes18c287.4$51 inLost-$50.783324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes16c211.2$34 inLost-$34.382860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+17.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes13c200$26 inLost-$266942%29 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c125.51$13 inLost-$13.142448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes13c89.25$11 inLost-$11.384228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3662…ca07backed Yes16c65$10 inLost-$10.41030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f4…1a39backed Yes20c55.47$11 inLost-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked No80c15$12 inWon+$32133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.