Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4faaab47cf6b91124daf5f91f1a791f4155b4d184504a23c38629221d9fe735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,458 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 68c | 793$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 11c | 576$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked Yes | 17c | 542$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 13c | 535$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 32c | 464$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 80c | 369.61$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 14c | 344$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 14c | 284$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3490…381bbacked Yes | 13c | 277.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 35c | 265$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…9e62backed Yes | 6c | 258.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 6c | 233.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 228.51$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 201.91$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed No | 64c | 200.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 200.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 14c | 179$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 156.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes | 14c | 156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0e…25afbacked Yes | 33c | 152.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a82…9ff1backed Yes | 21c | 152.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…34d6backed Yes | 14c | 147.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 10c | 138.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 77c | 136.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 67c | 128$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked No | 73c | 128$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…8d73backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…4292backed Yes | 26c | 98.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 88.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…2b61backed Yes | 16c | 61.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 33c | 60.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 53.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 51.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…d6c1backed Yes | 23c | 44.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32db…b2dbbacked Yes | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…8189backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.