Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbac2a3ef5367a2e5c694b27da8572c2479f2489439660cbfe579831bb1c9aaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,221 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 11,801$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 76c | 6,672$5,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,081.56 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 48c | 2,668$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.51 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 43c | 1,971$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.21 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 23c | 1,616$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 21c | 1,573$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 23c | 1,247$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 25c | 872.19$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.86 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 14c | 765$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 39c | 664.72$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.36 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 28c | 591$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 10c | 583$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 78c | 548.9$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 24c | 483$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 76c | 483$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 15c | 480$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 77c | 440$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 77c | 408$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 77c | 399$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…45aebacked No | 77c | 392.12$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd597…5e95backed Yes | 23c | 392.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 10c | 391$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked No | 72c | 343$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 72c | 305$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 28c | 300.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 72c | 248$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 19c | 241.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 230.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked No | 77c | 230$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a7…c7cfbacked Yes | 23c | 225.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd9…a658backed No | 77c | 225.87$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked Yes | 11c | 224.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 75c | 220$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 25c | 220$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 74c | 213.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 16c | 212$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…3984backed Yes | 5c | 201.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…e94bbacked No | 78c | 198.91$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…5cf4backed Yes | 52c | 190.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 20c | 181$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 178.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 21c | 163.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b61…1a66backed Yes | 25c | 162.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 15c | 157$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 52c | 152.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 152.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 16c | 129$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…83b8backed Yes | 16c | 127.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…7763backed Yes | 16c | 127.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…02bfbacked Yes | 18c | 117.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 107.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 24c | 99.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…adb9backed Yes | 21c | 95.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0109…ecc3backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 87.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 66c | 77.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 27c | 73.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 79c | 63.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…0539backed Yes | 29c | 56.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 52.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 52c | 47.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 70c | 38.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 28c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 77c | 22.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 78c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 64c | 16.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 72c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.