TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x62d5…adb9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Boxing at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+232.1%+$132.4
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+359.5%+$68.31
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+200%+$80.26
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+256.2%+$64.05
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+259.3%+$51.85
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+69.6%+$20.87
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+180.6%+$218.21
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+134.2%+$31.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$192.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+170%+$41.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.