TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,052 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes34c2,652$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.9817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes7c1,559$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.432817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf100…2fcabacked Yes28c1,166$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes24c1,067$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.923256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2009…903ebacked Yes50c1,003$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.89742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No74c979$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.461963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No55c930.83$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.0912938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed Yes26c929$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.461241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c912$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.936538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No3c820.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No67c801.73$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.122245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed No64c673$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.721353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes7c649$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.3119440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes29c647$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.7224634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No76c646$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.961353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes24c613$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.882157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked No76c613$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.881936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed Yes28c612$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes34c600$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3972857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed No77c568$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes24c566$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.161330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed No72c480$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.61040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked No76c475$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.641127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed No72c450$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes37c435.37$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.27020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes25c394.93$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.613721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed No76c378$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed No74c365$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes26c358$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.92837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes36c316.1$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.631637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ec…a100backed Yes30c313.27$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.69450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes64c301.05$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.291181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed No66c290$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No72c280$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes30c274.51$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.277619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked No77c265$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.051330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes26c250$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9534651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes23c247$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c236.83$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0923130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed Yes36c235$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No68c234.03$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4723041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes36c234$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.761855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed Yes23c213$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.011844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No67c210$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.82944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c206.34$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.428752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No71c204.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.05875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No35c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8816741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked No68c199.25$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes23c191$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No49c185.33$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.777936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes34c181$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0823741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No73c169$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.811250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abc…0faebacked Yes41c156.6$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No25c156.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0716015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xce70…0be2backed No65c151.52$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fdc…6ce2backed Yes30c139$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+230.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3995…88c2backed Yes29c136.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c134.2$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9487033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No77c131.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.113337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b5…596dbacked Yes30c131$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes23c130$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.11580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe7f3…af78backed Yes35c128.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No76c127$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.522832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No72c126$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.725345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No67c124.77$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.662142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed Yes27c113$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.491428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6568…95d9backed Yes31c104.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes37c103.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.926127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes34c100.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629226.1%24 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.63545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a06…8b7dbacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No19c94.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.052128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed No72c93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.961040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes22c91.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.241549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f06…4c96backed Yes35c87.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c86.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.121,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c81.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes30c77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.954030%12 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed No72c76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27a5…18d2backed Yes40c75.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.75450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4a…e90fbacked Yes46c73.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes29c73.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.991435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked No63c71.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e2…4c57backed No72c70.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes26c67.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1826641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977c…8c15backed No72c66.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cad…5c6bbacked No71c64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes24c61.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8814240.1%57 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes26c57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+77.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba6…e614backed Yes25c54.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.86540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c2…7763backed Yes36c53.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes23c52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.042147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+98.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes39c50.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.666917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbedb…0539backed Yes34c50.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.