Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2ae08766445461fda8b41f3559050b2a2d43aa00331a15e53b17479555bc284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,052 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 34c | 2,652$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.98 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 1,559$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.43 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 28c | 1,166$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,067$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.92 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…903ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,003$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 74c | 979$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 55c | 930.83$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.09 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 26c | 929$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 912$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.9 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 3c | 820.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 67c | 801.73$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed No | 64c | 673$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 7c | 649$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.31 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 29c | 647$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.72 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 76c | 646$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 24c | 613$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 76c | 613$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 28c | 612$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 34c | 600$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 77c | 568$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 24c | 566$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 72c | 480$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 76c | 475$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 72c | 450$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 435.37$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 25c | 394.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.61 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 76c | 378$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 74c | 365$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 26c | 358$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 36c | 316.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…a100backed Yes | 30c | 313.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 64c | 301.05$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 66c | 290$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 72c | 280$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 30c | 274.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 77c | 265$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 26c | 250$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.95 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 23c | 247$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 236.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.09 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 36c | 235$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 234.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 36c | 234$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 23c | 213$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 67c | 210$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 206.34$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 71c | 204.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked No | 68c | 199.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 23c | 191$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 49c | 185.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 34c | 181$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 73c | 169$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…0faebacked Yes | 41c | 156.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 156.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed No | 65c | 151.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…6ce2backed Yes | 30c | 139$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +230.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…88c2backed Yes | 29c | 136.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 134.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 77c | 131.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked Yes | 30c | 131$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…af78backed Yes | 35c | 128.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 76c | 127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 72c | 126$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 67c | 124.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 27c | 113$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…95d9backed Yes | 31c | 104.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 37c | 103.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 34c | 100.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a06…8b7dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 19c | 94.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 72c | 93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 91.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…4c96backed Yes | 35c | 87.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 86.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 81.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 72c | 76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a5…18d2backed Yes | 40c | 75.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4a…e90fbacked Yes | 46c | 73.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 29c | 73.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 63c | 71.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e2…4c57backed No | 72c | 70.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 26c | 67.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977c…8c15backed No | 72c | 66.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 24c | 61.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…e614backed Yes | 25c | 54.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…7763backed Yes | 36c | 53.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 50.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…0539backed Yes | 34c | 50.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.