Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfafcea3de732a21b5cb4a5c68e9f342effd6fa7f039caca4bf03415283fbe246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,949 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b9…5626backed Yes | 8c | 1,136$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 13c | 932$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 14c | 855$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 14c | 848$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 12c | 602$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 12c | 441$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 427.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 14c | 384$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 9c | 367.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes | 13c | 366$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36c…6b40backed Yes | 16c | 307.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 17c | 301.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 9c | 297.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 10c | 288.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…8e9cbacked Yes | 13c | 258.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a34…d8f3backed Yes | 11c | 253.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes | 13c | 212$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…1fd8backed Yes | 11c | 189.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 12c | 181.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…4ce7backed Yes | 12c | 168.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 79c | 166.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 10c | 160.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 14c | 159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 153.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 148.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 139.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…7909backed Yes | 15c | 136.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed No | 65c | 127.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 125.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3490…381bbacked Yes | 10c | 119.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 13c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…e60cbacked Yes | 13c | 112.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…12a8backed Yes | 14c | 91.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 26c | 77.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 31.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…2888backed Yes | 45c | 30.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 55c | 25.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.