TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,575 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes29c2,224$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc929…96cebacked Yes24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes26c1,019$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.942748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+50.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No78c914$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6724634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked No74c864$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked No75c834$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes21c793$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.53540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e3…5907backed No79c683$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+144.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No78c618$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.962254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes31c600$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.972857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes16c593$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.881741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed No74c568$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.681450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes17c516.7$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.111421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed Yes14c515$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes29c513$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.772832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ba…c705backed Yes29c510$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.91540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No75c509.47$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.787936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed Yes18c491$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.381421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-57%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes18c485$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-53.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No78c459$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+116.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes22c459$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.981947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c446$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9636538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes23c439.56$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.527619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes18c428$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.04837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked Yes25c422$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cef…be97backed Yes15c421.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes15c413$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.96633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7155…d866backed Yes25c412$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+49.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Yes22c406$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.321330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No74c404$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.042142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed Yes26c402$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+88.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No71c390.78$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.262245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes12c386$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes28c366.85$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.113721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No76c347$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8719440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed No79c346$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.662050%10 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes21c346$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.661346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No71c343$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.472828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed No71c342$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.181936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes18c339$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.02837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed No71c338$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.021464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No75c334.89$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.528752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No68c316.66$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes34c309.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.031741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No72c300$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked Yes25c299$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.753847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No75c299$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+103.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No71c291.27$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8512938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes29c262.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2128528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No70c234$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1414240.1%57 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c230.11$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.741,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No71c221.64$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.223041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a5…4ce7backed Yes32c217.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde62…64f6backed Yes22c212$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes26c210.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6923741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef29…f7eabacked Yes12c179$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes18c168.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3149…c4c5backed Yes32c167.26$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+77.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes15c163.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.757241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed No69c154.59$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.926100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c147.83$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2216741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1849…8916backed Yes26c146.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes16c143$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.881258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No71c138$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.526641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e8…2815backed Yes31c134.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e8…ee0dbacked Yes32c124.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40110%0 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f3…af78backed Yes16c124.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c124$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef02…4f7ebacked No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed No79c110$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…cb87backed Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes26c106.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1520841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x681e…5394backed Yes30c101$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes30c100.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7926431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ec…0db1backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No70c92.28$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.68875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa829…172abacked Yes22c91.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5595…12a8backed Yes30c91.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b5…596dbacked No74c88.22$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Yes18c87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7e…6be6backed No74c81.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.082927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20a3…24d2backed Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No77c74.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3715641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3840…14bebacked Yes29c72.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes32c64.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…24e0backed Yes32c62.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes26c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x202b…971abacked No72c60.18$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.613851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…cf43backed Yes31c59.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.532544%11 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e67…77adbacked No73c55.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No75c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.911240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.