Dota2 · resolved market
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Slam VI?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8e4fd8380a54707759fd13ce4a5bc68b35eba55c90aecae31214073859198e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 15c | 6,007$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.81 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes | 17c | 2,993$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 15c | 1,080$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…125fbacked Yes | 21c | 880.52$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 11c | 653.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 16c | 582.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…eee9backed Yes | 31c | 565.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked Yes | 15c | 555.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Yes | 24c | 413.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 407.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…c253backed No | 72c | 364.31$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…039cbacked Yes | 28c | 364.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 17c | 360$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…775bbacked Yes | 15c | 336.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 17c | 320.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b7…d4f5backed Yes | 28c | 319.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 70c | 307.95$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 25c | 307.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 228.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccd…8cf0backed No | 80c | 225.84$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…9cc2backed Yes | 21c | 225.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…5f2ebacked Yes | 14c | 178.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…efa8backed No | 71c | 158.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf33…2a64backed Yes | 29c | 158.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…cafbbacked Yes | 32c | 157.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…8033backed No | 73c | 150.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfd…7284backed Yes | 28c | 150.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 27c | 149.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…3f78backed Yes | 14c | 143.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…ab56backed Yes | 14c | 131.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4831…4feebacked Yes | 14c | 130.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…54c0backed Yes | 28c | 106.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 15c | 100.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked No | 70c | 66.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…3851backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 76c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natus Vincere win Blast Slam VI? this page
- Will GamerLegion win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will HEROIC win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will MOUZ win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will OG win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will REKONIX win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will Team Falcons win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will Team Liquid win Blast Slam VI? Yes won
- Will Team Spirit win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will Team Yandex win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will Tundra Esports win Blast Slam VI? No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win Blast Slam VI? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.