TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,070

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,904 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes2c8,466$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6413815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes8c5,289$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.9236113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No71c2,657$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.69728.9%28 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes37c2,597$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.4166222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ea…62c5backed No31c2,222$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.961747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes20c1,660$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.5610330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes31c1,455$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.443650%18 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes59c1,200$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.2525127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeacf…3c55backed Yes1c1,150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes68c1,008$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.854822.9%11 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes23c934.18$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.536216.1%10 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No76c902.55$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.148960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c821.06$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9222926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes69c765$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.0910824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05bc…3221backed Yes65c722.47$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked No41c668.54$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.527915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes9c604.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1111418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes5c585.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3621732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes6c583.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.231,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8295…610cbacked Yes17c576.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.537328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c484.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.172,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No67c464.75$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.654965.3%32 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes51c457.24$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.1815649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c441.38$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.772,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af8…b069backed Yes4c425.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.073525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes25c397.18$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995228.8%15 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c355.33$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0442628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f25…8a2fbacked Yes37c354.23$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.074528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed Yes48c346.79$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.910339.8%41 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes65c338.93$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9716056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked Yes64c314.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018357.9%106 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6231…84bbbacked Yes71c298.6$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.421637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes10c256.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8642719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes60c250$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes37c235.64$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5613038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes14c212.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.445598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.41675%12 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45dc…9179backed Yes27c192.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.53030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c191$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2579735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed No32c185$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8919527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed No32c185$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9110024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20cb…e2b0backed Yes65c178.38$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d95…5fe2backed Yes11c178.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b4…6b72backed Yes73c174.74$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed No41c173.22$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1724732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes55c167.03$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9212232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes60c165.72$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.697833.3%26 W · 52 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c154$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.421857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes26c147.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9640719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes52c119.85$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.085040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c116.08$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0626461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…da1fbacked No75c112.35$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.52580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes12c102.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.113511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0a…69a2backed Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid+101%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x061c…8b9abacked Yes28c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.52733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb58d…b858backed No48c99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+160.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes48c82.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.862539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes52c79.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.573641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No33c76.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3212543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde64…a821backed Yes56c71.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes27c61.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0b8…49c0backed Yes63c58.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes70c57.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5920532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc449…bb3fbacked Yes53c56.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16aa…505fbacked Yes51c56.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes56c53.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010131.7%32 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No33c52.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2111050%55 W · 55 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x211b…1872backed Yes54c51.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.744227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe342…2a23backed Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No75c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7511564.3%74 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3875…a45ebacked Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6d1…b57bbacked Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c61…f58bbacked No71c44.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.763627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa340…f3d4backed Yes28c41.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.361625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+358.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No72c41.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3624524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No32c39.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8610216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0de…8795backed Yes74c36.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5110052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcab1…f7a5backed Yes69c29.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes57c25.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.362045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd840…1ec6backed Yes75c25.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa920…a07abacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.223438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+60.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c19.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3616750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.