Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da29921ee4ca1e09ca8424dd87594643eeaec1140fb3163cf12cc18a81c8f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 1c | 58,750$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.4 | 136 | 16.2%22 W · 114 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,677$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.04 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 21c | 2,231$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.12 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed No | 5c | 2,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,764$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.98 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 65c | 1,537$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.26 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…6f51backed No | 1c | 1,257$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 30c | 914.62$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.02 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 72c | 900.63$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.22 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 814.96$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.89 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 612$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.81 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed No | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 575$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…98c0backed No | 7c | 573.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 20c | 501.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.53 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 59c | 428.93$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 21c | 425.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.66 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 350$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 285$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…c488backed Yes | 27c | 281.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 244.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 220.85$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.84 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 211.35$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 28c | 203.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 26c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…9179backed Yes | 20c | 190.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked Yes | 57c | 187.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 6c | 175.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 31c | 152.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 29c | 147.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 23c | 136.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 135.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked Yes | 50c | 134.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 62c | 131.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…84bbbacked Yes | 28c | 127.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 28c | 119.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 115.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked No | 67c | 114.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 109.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 28c | 106.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 101.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3706…9462backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…f3d4backed No | 52c | 97.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +358.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 29c | 87.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 25c | 81.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 29c | 77.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 25c | 64.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 21c | 60.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 28c | 57.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 55.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 43c | 54.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 52.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 51c | 51.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…c472backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…e9d5backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…cf72backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…3fb6backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 47.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…a07abacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…2e1abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 133 | 23.3%31 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 76c | 35.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 35c | 34.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 32c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 68c | 32.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 32.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…d937backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 75c | 26.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 21.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes | 57c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.