TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,318
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,318 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes6c7,552$427 inLost-$426.8663414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ea…62c5backed Yes1c6,666$47 inLost-$46.661747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,585$50 inLost-$50.112,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes14c1,795$248 inLost-$248.1336113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes2c1,028$20 inLost-$19.5648310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c910.41$20 inLost-$20.131,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c585.47$25 inLost-$24.9311418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes4c527.69$19 inLost-$18.537915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes21c497.36$102 inLost-$101.9727920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes4c473.84$20 inLost-$19.7632716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c449.51$62 inLost-$61.912,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe875…8492backed Yes8c433.55$36 inLost-$35.832010%2 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c350.89$19 inLost-$18.994916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes9c300$27 inLost-$2710911.9%13 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c259.81$200 inWon+$59.6279735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes8c220.38$17 inLost-$17.173713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes26c200$52 inLost-$526631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes30c199.98$59 inLost-$5942628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes22c161.3$36 inLost-$3612232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes27c155.72$41 inLost-$41.39919.2%19 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes16c123.09$20 inLost-$19.992520%5 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes30c115.26$35 inLost-$354311.6%5 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes30c100$30 inLost-$3043027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No70c100$70 inWon+$30.52763%17 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes17c94.44$16 inLost-$1613511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c92.07$24 inLost-$23.837830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeacf…3c55backed Yes16c92$15 inLost-$14.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2c…2657backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No75c90$68 inWon+$22.214864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes17c61$11 inLost-$10.551735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No79c60$47 inWon+$12.7615354.9%84 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed Yes30c48.77$15 inLost-$14.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes29c45.23$13 inLost-$13.1210547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede3…2f81backed Yes31c33.93$11 inLost-$10.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea91…b31dbacked No72c32.5$23 inWon+$9.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost-$1010131.7%32 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d0…e8c6backed No75c25$19 inWon+$6.2513259.8%79 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.