TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$259,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$257,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,199 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes0c59,999$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2113815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a6…254ebacked Yes1c13,113$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes2c7,390$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.22688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e0…3771backed Yes1c7,002$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbba…e651backed Yes1c5,994$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.213732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20cb…e2b0backed Yes2c5,658$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes2c4,180$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.881711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes9c4,000$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001f…9cb5backed Yes1c3,650$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.712321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes9c3,586$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.436113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c14…6342backed Yes1c3,472$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…6f51backed Yes1c3,452$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22fa…8135backed Yes1c3,327$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.241421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75de…98c0backed Yes3c2,877$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.933336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6316…6bbabacked Yes1c2,816$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+144.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e43…b356backed Yes0c2,445$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1417818.5%33 W · 145 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes1c2,278$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9119…138cbacked Yes1c2,033$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes1c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.86729.7%7 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…6906backed Yes1c1,992$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c1,591$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.052,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes8c1,585$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.612216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes4c1,352$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3932716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes3c1,302$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1548310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes11c1,258$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec20…3fb6backed Yes2c1,195$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.391942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes17c1,165$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes9c1,136$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1740719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05bc…3221backed Yes2c1,132$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No27c1,069$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.5521732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes3c1,035$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.049919.2%19 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No61c1,024$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.84965.3%32 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes30c1,021$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1810330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c918.3$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.272,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa340…f3d4backed Yes1c874.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+358.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No73c855.06$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.248960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No74c842.71$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.166216.1%10 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes17c828.91$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.922926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1635…55d6backed Yes3c825.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes3c809.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes2c743.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1125617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55e8…c488backed Yes15c659.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes16c599.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9914829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes3c582.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.07119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick2cpaid-46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c545.5$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1821857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45dc…9179backed Yes13c517.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c461.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.666915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeacf…3c55backed Yes4c452$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes6c447.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.181,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd7…5c92backed Yes3c439.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f4…56c1backed Yes4c432.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6df…65b1backed Yes27c421.2$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed No64c413.18$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.7324732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes5c408.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.479740.2%39 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes6c377.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No42c360$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2118358.5%107 W · 76 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes38c341.43$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8219229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…9498backed Yes11c326.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c316.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7726461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes13c255.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4816023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe875…8492backed Yes13c254.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.92010%2 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4873…b9c2backed Yes11c230.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.761428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes16c220.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No73c207.6$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.653452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c202.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.174916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed No31c184.76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.453650%18 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes9c179.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6412543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c168.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7828723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes8c160.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.719527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes13c160.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.521520%3 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes10c156.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3610024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d4…64a7backed Yes8c143.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No57c134.11$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0533670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd952…c0ccbacked Yes19c115.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda8…4567backed Yes72c114.13$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick74cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes20c101.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.571735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159126.4%24 W · 67 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.111564.3%74 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242763%17 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3706…9462backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7742628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes24c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.627920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes14c87.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.213641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x428e…87a5backed Yes19c80.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes18c78.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No66c71.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.562755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2c…2657backed Yes29c69.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes17c66.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3311730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes20c60.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0737830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No33c57.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9110216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77fe…835dbacked Yes36c55.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c52.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6851018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes28c51.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5544227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No78c49.19$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772040%8 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed Yes53c48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fdb…e6a6backed Yes61c45.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed Yes38c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c61…f58bbacked Yes38c29.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.