TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1635…55d6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
35
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Serie A, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 54 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,238Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$434.99
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$162.75
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$119.44
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,377.55
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.42
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$350.5
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$888Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$888.05
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,699Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$546.94
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$264.55
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$69.41
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$583.22
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$290.39
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$120.3
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$626Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$626.13
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$170.5
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$120
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$69
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.29
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$93
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+37%+$40.5
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,031Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$777.44
All 23 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$405.23
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$258.41
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$850Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$849.66
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$122.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+378.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffsbacked E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+378.4%+$64.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$205.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.