Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ceed25c2c2555b6c99e7db7b21da82130d80f5452f114019f6ef0fc8b48bd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,874 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked Yes | 61c | 2,900$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.43 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 38c | 2,802$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.03 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 38c | 1,890$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…46a5backed Yes | 69c | 1,450$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 31c | 1,113$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.41 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 71c | 745$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 40c | 699.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes | 71c | 631$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 65c | 530.99$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 29c | 460$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed No | 29c | 424$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 30c | 398.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed Yes | 62c | 397$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 58c | 379.39$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 35c | 325.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.32 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 320.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 61c | 210$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 63c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Yes | 63c | 182.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 32c | 155.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…8b9abacked Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +228.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 62c | 147$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 44c | 144$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 57c | 141.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 38c | 121$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…9a2bbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…2cdabacked Yes | 57c | 99.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…752fbacked Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 83.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 74c | 72.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 67.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 61c | 66.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 60c | 63.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…6266backed No | 37c | 62.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…eaa0backed No | 37c | 60.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 60.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed No | 37c | 59.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 57c | 57.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 30c | 42.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…9074backed No | 39c | 35.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 64c | 33.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…9f96backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2e0dbacked No | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…c5dabacked Yes | 70c | 21.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…9af8backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.