TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5c6d…9074

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.14
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$13.15
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$13.72
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+165.8%+$56.65
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$18.82
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+125.1%+$51.4
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$24.79
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+74.5%+$18.32
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+52.5%+$31.7
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$45.56
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+180.8%+$52.39
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+101.3%+$103.71
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23.47
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-61.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Miami Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.74
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked High Point Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.59
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.18
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$40.9
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Texas A&M Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.8
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruinsbacked UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.78
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcatsbacked Villanova Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.74
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.39
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhornsbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.74
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked Howard Bison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$15.8
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Richmond Spiders: O/U 143.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.35
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+81.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+118.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$17.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Clippersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.