Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3b07c4fa6ef6bcea9be5d3210f2e58913929515421fbf96f5b9123ce6a9acdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $716,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $716,034 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 550 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 11c | 43,317$4,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,861.06 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 17c | 31,227$5,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,272.66 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 7c | 26,048$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.85 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 0c | 24,984$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 17,544$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.09 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 14c | 17,236$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.49 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 62c | 17,105$10,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,423.98 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 1c | 12,691$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 20c | 7,163$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.23 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…68c3backed Yes | 9c | 7,001$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.58 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes | 2c | 6,929$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 17c | 6,882$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.9 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 14c | 6,250$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.77 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 0c | 6,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 14c | 5,986$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.89 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 67c | 5,841$3,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.63 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 11c | 5,812$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…22f4backed Yes | 2c | 5,547$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 15c | 5,357$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.88 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 18c | 5,004$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.12 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3f90backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 3c | 4,777$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,758$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0228…a700backed Yes | 22c | 4,575$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 9c | 4,484$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.53 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 27c | 4,427$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.83 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…64f3backed Yes | 25c | 4,241$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 3,858$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…70ccbacked Yes | 8c | 3,748$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 14c | 3,716$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.53 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 3,642$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.52 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 70c | 3,500$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.39 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 66c | 3,446$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.29 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 6c | 3,411$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.39 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 3,381$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.7 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 30c | 3,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,332$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb302…2baebacked Yes | 13c | 3,289$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,917$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,680$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.11 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 6c | 2,651$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.96 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,536$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 6c | 2,534$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…c6f8backed Yes | 13c | 2,530$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.38 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…50a4backed Yes | 59c | 2,519$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.51 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 36c | 2,396$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.59 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 2,360$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,351$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 2,332$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.49 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 75c | 2,088$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.04 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 33c | 2,028$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.78 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 2,025$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa490…bf7ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,981$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.22 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,939$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 3c | 1,910$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 22c | 1,894$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.65 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 28c | 1,886$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.7 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 26c | 1,862$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 1,850$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.18 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 6c | 1,800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,738$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,669$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.9 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 5c | 1,667$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 8c | 1,638$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,637$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.95 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 67c | 1,610$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.36 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 30c | 1,599$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.56 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 12c | 1,572$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2c…a07dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,563$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…36fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,540$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 21c | 1,466$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.46 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a1acbacked Yes | 2c | 1,445$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0d…3dfabacked Yes | 20c | 1,428$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…490dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,382$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 24c | 1,315$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.31 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,311$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…2fe2backed Yes | 54c | 1,294$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 1,293$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.99 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,279$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.29 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…bc42backed Yes | 16c | 1,259$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 5c | 1,250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 20c | 1,225$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 26c | 1,221$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,200$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.49 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 13c | 1,183$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 13c | 1,175$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 43c | 1,168$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.6 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 1,153$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,132$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.59 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…0990backed Yes | 27c | 1,094$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 21c | 1,092$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 1,082$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.35 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 12c | 1,032$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.