Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f9fa0288307f7029fc94fde01b81c1631de80e48799e8dd6b30539c3658957f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,226 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 105,150$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.24 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 45,284$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.11 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 10,782$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…481fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,370$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,487$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…3283backed Yes | 4c | 3,162$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…6434backed Yes | 1c | 3,001$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 1c | 2,829$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,674$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…72b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,585$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,344$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,208$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 2,099$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,001$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 6c | 2,001$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,868$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 2c | 1,840$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,673$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,672$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 6c | 1,528$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 4c | 1,193$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,081$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 5c | 1,032$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,007$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…4f7abacked Yes | 1c | 803.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 3c | 800.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…50fabacked Yes | 2c | 777.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 2c | 777.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 707.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 698.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 6c | 397.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 4c | 350.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 294.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 4c | 270.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…567ebacked Yes | 4c | 259.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 6c | 221.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 6c | 208.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…edc0backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.