Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa06d9833263e077d45f460f23467810907c8eab4fc9022162e566925fc722b83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,923 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 12,575$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.55 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,283$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.37 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 3,891$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 22c | 3,794$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.99 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 37c | 3,742$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.65 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…fb75backed Yes | 0c | 3,709$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 2,709$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.97 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 69c | 2,315$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.8 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 8c | 1,704$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,599$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…43c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,463$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…68c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,426$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.45 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,383$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.41 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,305$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 19c | 1,293$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 34c | 1,166$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 1,097$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 21c | 1,025$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 35c | 1,018$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 4c | 940$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 41c | 917.32$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.45 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 900$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.5 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…e547backed Yes | 34c | 882.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…b1dcbacked Yes | 2c | 859.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 20c | 816.62$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.01 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 5c | 768.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 34c | 680.35$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…a8f7backed Yes | 34c | 595.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 63c | 577.43$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 31c | 568.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 5c | 560$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…7a92backed No | 68c | 532.06$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 40c | 501.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 14c | 473$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 36c | 418.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 32c | 399.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 395.24$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes | 29c | 365.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 66c | 359.76$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 347.35$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 319$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 300.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…c1c8backed Yes | 32c | 299.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0cdebacked Yes | 34c | 297.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes | 28c | 293.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 36c | 285.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 35c | 269.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…b3e1backed Yes | 39c | 258.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 65c | 250$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 33c | 220.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 34c | 208.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 25c | 204$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 37c | 192.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes | 37c | 185$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 74c | 182.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 32c | 157.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…32a7backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 33c | 149.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes | 34c | 146.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e3…8796backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes | 36c | 133.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 28c | 128.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 32c | 123.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 17c | 117.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 34c | 116.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 32c | 110.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…fa29backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…9cd5backed Yes | 36c | 101.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…a34dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…4641backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…c478backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b0…dddfbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5720…515fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 32c | 99.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…fbaabacked Yes | 31c | 97.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Yes | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 111 | 18.9%21 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d0…7992backed No | 61c | 97.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc9…2dc6backed Yes | 31c | 95.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 88.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…50cfbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No | 70c | 87.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…4e7dbacked Yes | 35c | 85.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.