TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,923 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes12c12,575$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.551,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes5c4,283$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.3728016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes2c4,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.37958.4%8 W · 87 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c3,891$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.741,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes22c3,794$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.9931621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes37c3,742$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.6563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a07…fb75backed Yes0c3,709$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c2,709$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.971,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No69c2,315$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.854675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20885.7%5 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes8c1,704$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.472119%4 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c1,599$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.872727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5681…43c1backed Yes1c1,463$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9558…68c3backed Yes1c1,450$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes20c1,426$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4526211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes20c1,383$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.4113511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,305$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.311,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes19c1,293$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes34c1,166$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes18c1,097$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.091159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes21c1,025$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.7188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes35c1,018$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3609626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38015649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes4c940$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0211624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes41c917.32$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.4521034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes37c900$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.521233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc736…e547backed Yes34c882.34$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0e…b1dcbacked Yes2c859.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes20c816.62$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes5c768.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4527316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes34c680.35$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9226411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x554a…a8f7backed Yes34c595.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-58.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No63c577.43$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.363821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes31c568.26$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9610523.8%25 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes5c560$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31407.5%3 W · 37 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd9…7a92backed No68c532.06$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.06771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes40c501.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes14c473$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2217628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed Yes36c418.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes32c399.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12819317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c395.24$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9526167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes29c365.55$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.354816.7%8 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked No66c359.76$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.91,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No71c347.35$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.331565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c319$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes36c300.19$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0510422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes12c300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.16224.2%15 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+105.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3936…c1c8backed Yes32c299.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59a…0cdebacked Yes34c297.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes28c293.19$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.681926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes36c285.91$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5453522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes35c269.86$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9518321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86e…b3e1backed Yes39c258.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006816.2%11 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd897…9b49backed No66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked No65c250$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.614050%70 W · 70 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes33c220.01$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0548819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes34c208.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.761723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7684…15c4backed Yes25c204$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514025%10 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7842628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6573215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6840016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes37c192.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1118822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes37c185$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.056621.2%14 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No74c182.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.975174.5%38 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes32c157.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca05…32a7backed Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes33c149.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7238828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509241.3%38 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes34c146.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503225%8 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes12c145$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0513023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e3…8796backed Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8918357.9%106 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes36c133.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes28c128.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3615430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes32c123.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.152619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes17c117.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes34c116.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4023735.4%84 W · 153 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes32c110.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3542312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf5…fa29backed Yes34c102.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4593…9cd5backed Yes36c101.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.452528%7 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe183…3e16backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358053.8%43 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.33770.3%26 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524b…a34dbacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1669…4641backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98fc…c478backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-56.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71b0…dddfbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5720…515fbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334122%9 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…bafebacked Yes32c99.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.727628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaccc…fbaabacked Yes31c97.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes37c97.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611118.9%21 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d0…7992backed No61c97.26$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.933461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc9…2dc6backed Yes31c95.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes35c88.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7119550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7db…50cfbacked Yes34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No70c87.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4460127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…4e7dbacked Yes35c85.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes24c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.146222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.