Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd242a6b92af2908e63c2709c0307d543e89089132ce4c5137b1693ba29a73c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $600,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,142 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed No | 38c | 37,000$14,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,060 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…b7cfbacked Yes | 62c | 37,000$22,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,060 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…ae73backed Yes | 62c | 30,000$18,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 0c | 29,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…5818backed No | 38c | 29,992$11,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,397.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed No | 0c | 28,076$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 18c | 23,544$4,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,251.41 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 61c | 11,038$6,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,280.27 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…e9bebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 37c | 6,968$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,395.69 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 46c | 5,971$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,217.24 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 19c | 5,512$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,464.54 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…0e43backed Yes | 65c | 5,059$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 59c | 4,717$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.81 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 57c | 4,670$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.28 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 51c | 4,559$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.73 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 50c | 4,034$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.27 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 79c | 4,007$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.86 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 76c | 3,749$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.36 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 6c | 3,399$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.51 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 45c | 3,026$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.53 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 68c | 2,615$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.21 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 63c | 2,568$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.45 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 63c | 2,525$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.76 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 73c | 2,500$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.71 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…c9f0backed Yes | 60c | 2,442$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.3 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 38c | 2,405$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.21 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed No | 47c | 2,095$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.64 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 60c | 2,028$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.66 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…64ffbacked Yes | 61c | 1,652$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.45 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes | 64c | 1,638$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.53 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 39c | 1,600$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 51c | 1,563$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.8 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 33c | 1,505$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.01 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 45c | 1,476$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.52 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,388$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.71 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…2fe2backed Yes | 51c | 1,379$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked Yes | 58c | 1,360$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 56c | 1,342$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.76 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,318$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.76 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,303$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.59 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed No | 1c | 1,213$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 1,197$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.73 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,193$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.33 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…3102backed Yes | 24c | 1,176$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 35c | 1,096$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.22 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,070$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.18 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 1,033$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.77 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 38c | 1,022$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.3 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 63c | 1,010$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.53 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 37c | 1,006$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.79 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 17c | 974.71$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.71 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 55c | 950$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.41 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 60c | 909.35$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.81 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0d…3dfabacked Yes | 50c | 904.59$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes | 64c | 836.06$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.35 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 73c | 819.99$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed No | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 21c | 806.01$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.87 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked No | 3c | 799.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 188 | 8%15 W · 173 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 31c | 787.89$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.53 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…9cd5backed Yes | 14c | 748.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.52 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 53c | 706$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.8 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed No | 44c | 688.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 64c | 672.43$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.87 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 77c | 654.47$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 52c | 600$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.3 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 51c | 587.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.4 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…1de9backed Yes | 56c | 581.79$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.36 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 39c | 580.51$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.79 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 56c | 570.36$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.59 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…5c88backed Yes | 64c | 558.41$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 53c | 555.09$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.69 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…2807backed Yes | 40c | 519.25$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.55 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 16c | 514.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.22 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…f546backed No | 42c | 512.13$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.28 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa490…bf7ebacked Yes | 26c | 494.55$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.79 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 69c | 490$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 55c | 476.13$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.62 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 19c | 472.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.77 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 43c | 470.78$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.31 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c2…ab5cbacked Yes | 61c | 459.63$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 11c | 450$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 442.18$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.61 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 59c | 420.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 417.33$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.59 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…f31cbacked Yes | 47c | 416.49$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…b30bbacked Yes | 54c | 414.49$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…953cbacked Yes | 15c | 414.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.09 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…0896backed Yes | 8c | 412.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +504.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 407.74$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.82 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…3058backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.