Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564bb2bb67e2dd71d6c750ca9edf93c079a81bc261d545b54d7d13eb1463517e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 18,611$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 11c | 16,756$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.64 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…7e08backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 9.3%13 W · 127 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +642.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 8,095$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 7c | 7,611$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.23 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 7,450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 17c | 6,600$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.82 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 2c | 6,392$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,062$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.8 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 11c | 6,053$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.17 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 79c | 5,747$4,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.14 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 16c | 5,726$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 16c | 5,476$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.12 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 8c | 5,184$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.42 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 5,019$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a119backed Yes | 6c | 4,866$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 4,668$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 4,409$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.54 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 4,170$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.03 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,959$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.01 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 13c | 3,677$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.14 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 3,381$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.39 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,132$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 9c | 3,124$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 2,919$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.84 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,913$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.07 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 78c | 2,679$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.54 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…81e4backed Yes | 6c | 2,547$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…dcc9backed Yes | 1c | 2,351$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,269$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.7 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 2,217$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,213$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 2,051$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cf…acd0backed Yes | 6c | 2,041$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 6c | 2,028$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 74c | 1,869$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.58 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,855$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,850$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 11c | 1,785$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 26c | 1,730$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.42 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,600$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,589$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41bd…4797backed Yes | 1c | 1,540$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,497$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 7c | 1,471$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,420$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…953cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,314$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 2c | 1,265$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…2037backed Yes | 42c | 1,196$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,189$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 13c | 1,150$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.41 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 21c | 1,134$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.45 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…1f14backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 4c | 1,066$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,061$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb5…6234backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 34c | 999.98$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.99 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 20c | 996.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 32c | 994.47$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.75 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 23c | 979.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.48 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 32c | 975.07$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.16 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 21c | 974.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 26c | 946.7$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.39 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 10c | 945.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 3c | 938.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 19c | 850.52$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 10c | 849.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes | 14c | 833.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 22c | 832.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.23 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 6c | 821.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 37c | 795.5$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.22 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 12c | 793.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…875ebacked Yes | 2c | 789.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…9cd5backed Yes | 12c | 784.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…79f8backed Yes | 5c | 760.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 734.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 3c | 732.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 19c | 731.53$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…b190backed Yes | 21c | 718.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…0494backed Yes | 3c | 698.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 27c | 665.19$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 14c | 663.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Yes | 6c | 660$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…1dc5backed Yes | 2c | 627.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 2c | 619.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…158cbacked Yes | 2c | 610.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 8c | 608.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 33c | 607.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 4c | 564.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 2c | 563.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.