TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,169 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes6c18,586$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.018719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes11c16,994$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.151,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes0c6,139$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1113713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes3c3,715$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes11c2,577$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.64808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes13c2,469$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.0913511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes14c2,437$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.71159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes13c2,420$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2378111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes14c1,871$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.71,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes13c1,809$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,695$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.942727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes7c1,667$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0388018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No76c1,665$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.6754675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c1,603$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes12c1,577$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c1,480$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.41,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes6c1,410$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4115819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes28c1,347$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38017919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes14c1,220$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0926211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked No77c1,050$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.9550913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes19c1,030$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes12c969$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2822610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes15c900$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13521233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcae5…6e29backed Yes15c643.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes19c633.6$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2327316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes18c578.02$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes18c574.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.12119%4 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes10c535.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes19c490$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.721818.3%40 W · 178 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1191…4721backed Yes10c467.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+216.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes14c456.25$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.56407.5%3 W · 37 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c403.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431185.9%7 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019020.5%39 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed Yes29c339.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa105…8687backed Yes19c332.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.082142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00b3…0991backed Yes8c324$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.923119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-2.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed Yes11c302.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.327939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes13c256.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5825617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6091…0b10backed Yes5c249.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes6c213.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8410216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes28c208.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.941723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes28c207$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4319317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes13c204.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7524932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3618424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5473215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1116119.9%32 W · 129 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes11c199.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes19c197.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.513718.2%25 W · 112 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c194.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf67…374ebacked Yes8c189$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…50fabacked Yes17c175.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.245240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes14c170$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.648819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a37…65c3backed Yes12c169.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c0…12bfbacked Yes14c165.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked Yes8c157$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.562718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356224.2%15 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+105.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes17c148.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes18c135.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes9c127$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3732015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes16c120.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19598.5%5 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x323f…a511backed Yes11c112.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes22c111.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8652619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes16c110$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.613023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf5…fa29backed Yes27c103.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacba…40a1backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+160%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04eb…1ab3backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10339.1%3 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1716532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc64f…7940backed No73c99.81$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa3…c15abacked Yes29c96.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes16c88.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.213514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d6…ed39backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e3…8796backed Yes28c70.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.644227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bab…2dd0backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62931%9 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcabf…7fc6backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfde…4006backed Yes28c41.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d32…b3c5backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88819.3%17 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1003…7a79backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d5e…5c0cbacked No80c22.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db5…701ebacked No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.38679.1%68 W · 18 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.