Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29ca4cb32053623a3da26eb23ad6a74e38cac29b4cc26022c8cf282b2de55245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,452 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 16,392$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 13,998$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 13,485$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,626$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,332$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,143$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 5,117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,056$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 1c | 4,638$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,464$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,637$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,801$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 1c | 2,109$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 151 | 5.3%8 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 2c | 2,088$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 1c | 1,929$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,586$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,526$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 1,509$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,325$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 1c | 1,235$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…6253backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 231 | 16.9%39 W · 192 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…dc0fbacked Yes | 1c | 916.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 2c | 803.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…df40backed Yes | 3c | 723.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 2c | 597.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 4c | 347.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.