Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293a3abf162dbd078a65816dbc6cc11930d95dc688f8a02b2508b90177652354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $847,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $889,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $847,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 41c | 33,454$13,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,579.78 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 34c | 17,976$6,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,814.98 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 22c | 13,482$3,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,032.72 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 44c | 11,708$5,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,173.08 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 13c | 11,346$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.88 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked No | 39c | 10,542$4,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 65c | 10,025$6,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,488.63 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 63c | 8,896$5,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,253.14 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 33c | 7,517$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,056.78 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 7,366$3,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.1 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…7ec6backed Yes | 79c | 6,832$5,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +119%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 62c | 6,500$4,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.7 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 57c | 6,449$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.13 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 13c | 6,060$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.14 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 29c | 5,480$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,905.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed No | 28c | 5,313$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 47c | 5,198$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.25 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 35c | 5,066$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.24 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed Yes | 35c | 4,828$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 62c | 4,580$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.41 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…64f3backed Yes | 70c | 4,517$3,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…060cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,465$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,411.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +1,075.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 38c | 4,306$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.74 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 18c | 3,897$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,191.32 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 35c | 3,611$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.69 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 69c | 3,481$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.4 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 32c | 3,404$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.68 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 61c | 3,374$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.62 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 38c | 3,237$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.45 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 3,145$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.2 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 51c | 3,118$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.81 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 17c | 3,051$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.89 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 47c | 3,035$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.82 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 37c | 2,848$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,824$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.01 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 13c | 2,764$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.23 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 72c | 2,628$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.57 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked No | 71c | 2,530$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.61 | 108 | 6.5%7 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 3c | 2,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked No | 72c | 2,451$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.81 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 56c | 2,311$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.36 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 63c | 2,214$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.12 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 72c | 2,184$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.67 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 49c | 2,174$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.23 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 17c | 2,131$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.41 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 61c | 2,000$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.86 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 45c | 1,922$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.87 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…d145backed Yes | 39c | 1,852$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.37 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 46c | 1,849$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.9 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…8876backed No | 11c | 1,763$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 28c | 1,734$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.88 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 54c | 1,672$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.96 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 63c | 1,509$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.95 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 37c | 1,501$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.29 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 68c | 1,500$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.98 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked No | 43c | 1,456$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.55 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 57c | 1,454$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.8 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…4969backed Yes | 53c | 1,449$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.19 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…3344backed Yes | 4c | 1,415$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,314.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,413$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.69 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…cac3backed No | 64c | 1,386$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.2 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…0389backed Yes | 5c | 1,384$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 41c | 1,371$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.51 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,354$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.83 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 47c | 1,307$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.56 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 65c | 1,279$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.93 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 1,236$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.8 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7e5abacked No | 20c | 1,198$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.8 | 291 | 13.1%38 W · 253 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 22c | 1,197$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.73 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e2…3146backed No | 38c | 1,179$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.82 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,178$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.23 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 22c | 1,170$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.52 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 64c | 1,125$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.25 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…1de9backed Yes | 57c | 1,123$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.05 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 65c | 1,100$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.8 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…dec4backed Yes | 47c | 1,068$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 14c | 1,050$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb52…67ccbacked No | 75c | 1,027$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 59c | 1,025$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 32c | 1,015$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.21 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,015$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.94 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…ecacbacked Yes | 80c | 1,001$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 51c | 1,000$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.8 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…ce18backed No | 57c | 995.79$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 35c | 972.91$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.95 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 39c | 972.36$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.47 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 51c | 968.7$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.13 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 19c | 962.02$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.22 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…5815backed No | 28c | 944.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.89 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x119c…aaf2backed Yes | 56c | 928.6$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…e0b2backed Yes | 68c | 925.87$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.51 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 70c | 925.37$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.35 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 77c | 899$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.03 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 33c | 882.9$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.33 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked No | 80c | 882.45$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.03 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 23c | 876.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.06 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 874.84$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.79 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 836$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 28c | 834.06$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.64 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.