Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe2d30baa037e59f005123455f5a7a3fbb393ce446e07ad5afbe527028a5dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $390,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 34,463$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,757$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 15,969$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 15,652$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 0c | 10,808$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,498$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 0c | 7,625$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 6,944$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed Yes | 0c | 6,929$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 6,168$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…9f53backed Yes | 0c | 5,583$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 5,525$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.87 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes | 10c | 5,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…7c8dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,614$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 4,427$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 0c | 3,413$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,986$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.89 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 2,580$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.96 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 2c | 2,201$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 2,152$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,850$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…060cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,846$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +1,075.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 6c | 1,290$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 1,243$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,241$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 16c | 1,080$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 965.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 19c | 921.7$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.23 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 18c | 650$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 606.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 524.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 6c | 452.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 14c | 399.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 18c | 379.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 296.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 15c | 231.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 15c | 175.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 12c | 105.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1d…8721backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e2…3146backed Yes | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…ba48backed Yes | 12c | 81.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…ce73backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…ac73backed No | 73c | 67.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 33c | 54.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.