Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x324c49b1727049ec34750a61aae3291101d75affce8304f42170dd95fe6fce8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $640,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $465,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $640,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 67,331$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.89 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 27,436$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 26,448$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed Yes | 1c | 22,635$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.87 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 15,065$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 0c | 11,334$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…e688backed Yes | 11c | 10,314$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 1c | 9,191$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,596$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,236$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 0c | 5,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 5,084$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,749$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes | 3c | 3,996$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 1c | 3,975$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 71c | 3,914$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.54 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,612$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 3,473$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 0c | 3,413$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 7c | 3,140$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.49 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,139$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 14c | 2,908$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.32 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 3c | 2,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6a…1ef7backed Yes | 2c | 2,672$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 2,561$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,183$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 2,116$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.02 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…973ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…5ea3backed Yes | 1c | 1,978$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,785$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 28c | 1,701$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.06 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 1,700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.61 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,600$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes | 19c | 1,560$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,532$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,462$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.39 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 20c | 1,451$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,266$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 39c | 1,204$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 7c | 1,105$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,065$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 8c | 1,028$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,015$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 998.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…2e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 979.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 7c | 975.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…5077backed Yes | 2c | 909.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 899.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 801.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 35c | 800.41$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.45 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…4bc9backed Yes | 2c | 675.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 36c | 649.96$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.49 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 3c | 646.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915e…4473backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 34c | 515$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 11c | 494.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f796backed Yes | 7c | 475.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 94 | 12.8%12 W · 82 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 17c | 457.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 453.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 18c | 405.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 33c | 399.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…a397backed Yes | 4c | 388.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e3…8796backed Yes | 36c | 387.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 11c | 377.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 368.71$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 29c | 348.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 4c | 342.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 333.58$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 15c | 323.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 16c | 315.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…b3e1backed Yes | 33c | 299.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 21c | 290$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…b356backed Yes | 11c | 279.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 178 | 18.5%33 W · 145 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 7c | 273$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 266.97$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 24c | 248$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes | 39c | 236.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 16c | 222.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…e654backed Yes | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…32a7backed Yes | 6c | 208.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 6.5%7 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…305fbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…78fabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.