Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070bd77fc6c900968f7c29f9effd0208b5899bcb738894d7cd9108d160f13287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $522,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $423,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 449 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 15c | 51,865$7,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,658.44 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 13c | 21,487$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.02 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 27c | 18,576$5,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,095.14 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 44c | 12,327$5,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,474.35 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 8,954$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525.04 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 36c | 8,896$3,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.9 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 26c | 8,890$2,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.06 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 28c | 7,976$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 7,366$3,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.16 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 30c | 6,500$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.01 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…e688backed Yes | 19c | 5,330$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 61c | 4,800$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.59 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 80c | 4,776$3,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.28 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed Yes | 41c | 4,619$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 16c | 4,565$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 56c | 4,218$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.48 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 23c | 4,204$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.74 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 50c | 4,137$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 31c | 4,067$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.83 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 21c | 3,318$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.6 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 23c | 3,259$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.48 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 37c | 3,151$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.38 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 3,117$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.75 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 48c | 2,764$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.73 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 3c | 2,650$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.92 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 18c | 2,551$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.99 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 15c | 2,547$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.96 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…bad8backed Yes | 22c | 2,177$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 15c | 2,140$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.19 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 39c | 2,115$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.16 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,074$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.24 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,055$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.27 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 55c | 2,012$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.61 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.12 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…0940backed Yes | 53c | 1,915$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 4c | 1,905$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 1,886$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.68 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,740$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.56 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 48c | 1,740$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,729$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.81 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 26c | 1,550$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 1,507$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.66 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 1,502$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.29 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 23c | 1,495$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.81 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 46c | 1,474$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.69 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 32c | 1,465$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.25 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 38c | 1,416$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.51 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 66c | 1,408$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.14 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e3…8796backed Yes | 35c | 1,401$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 1,393$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.58 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 43c | 1,348$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.48 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 29c | 1,329$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.32 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6e…0ba6backed Yes | 77c | 1,294$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.86 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…1039backed Yes | 39c | 1,271$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…50a4backed No | 67c | 1,267$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.97 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 54c | 1,251$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.78 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 10c | 1,250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 39c | 1,234$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.06 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 42c | 1,222$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 40c | 1,203$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.62 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 26c | 1,193$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 30c | 1,162$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.33 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 27c | 1,140$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 40c | 1,129$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.04 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 56c | 1,122$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.14 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 56c | 1,108$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.85 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…8b85backed Yes | 22c | 1,100$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 17c | 1,084$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 20c | 1,079$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 10c | 1,070$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 35c | 1,062$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.59 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 49c | 1,035$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 7c | 1,027$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,015$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.32 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 29c | 999.98$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.99 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 30c | 970.18$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 19c | 945.52$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 28c | 912$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 25c | 901.45$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.01 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 47c | 900$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 12c | 877.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 48c | 806.08$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.22 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 46c | 798.44$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.18 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 35c | 796.9$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.7 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…be66backed Yes | 32c | 786.12$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.06 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…00b4backed Yes | 64c | 781.05$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 778.02$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.86 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 763.17$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25e…f9c0backed Yes | 49c | 753.7$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.62 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…41aebacked Yes | 42c | 729.24$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.91 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 31c | 723.54$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…1de9backed Yes | 63c | 718.18$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 47c | 700$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.5 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 697.57$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.64 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…03bebacked Yes | 18c | 649.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Yes | 58c | 649.47$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…7465backed Yes | 14c | 649.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.