Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3a6491fa79368fab0e00757cb469dc5eff96bbaadda0b5bdb6b58b39f7cacb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,601 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c6d…9074backed Yes | 10c | 966.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 674.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…390bbacked Yes | 18c | 552.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Yes | 12c | 513.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…0dc9backed Yes | 12c | 509.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 21c | 435.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 430$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0dc…e78abacked Yes | 19c | 414.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 6c | 379.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Yes | 9c | 351.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked Yes | 15c | 259$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 15c | 248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4434…54b8backed Yes | 17c | 169.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…0d48backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 9c | 149.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7e…a2e3backed Yes | 16c | 125.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…67c8backed Yes | 9c | 121.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 116.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…5625backed Yes | 10c | 104.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 17c | 94.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…6cffbacked Yes | 17c | 86.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 76c | 77.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 49.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 75c | 21.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.