Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc56e6a927720e7735a9df64ad857a8c44ed6fcac532a1dc179f681c68f8876bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,821$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,611$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf688…e5fbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,194$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 77c | 1,154$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.81 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.19 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…724dbacked Yes | 28c | 730.34$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 17c | 722$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed No | 76c | 710.62$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 72c | 700$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 29c | 626.22$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.29 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 564.41$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.78 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked No | 77c | 484.45$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 80c | 472$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 17c | 397$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 387.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 20c | 347$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 20c | 338$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…ae2bbacked No | 76c | 334.86$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Yes | 26c | 294.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 21c | 226$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 22c | 218.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 80c | 213$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…b448backed No | 73c | 205.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 10c | 188.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2b30backed No | 77c | 156.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 24c | 151.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…db9ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Yes | 27c | 112.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…93f2backed No | 75c | 110.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…cc85backed No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 17c | 105.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6633…d845backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…3c46backed No | 77c | 95.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…7a69backed Yes | 21c | 94.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 70.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b6…a023backed Yes | 21c | 65.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 58.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…3666backed No | 72c | 55.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 51.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…fb3fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a33…25a7backed No | 75c | 37.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…20cabacked No | 78c | 33.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…be73backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…a887backed No | 79c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 79c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d08…9165backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.