Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fd951c699691cfe8beeb5ecb7034c4c7b0335f912965c0127bfb5eef3e57b5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,695 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 60c | 841$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed Yes | 40c | 841$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 52c | 486.08$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 10c | 368.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked No | 49c | 329.82$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c580backed Yes | 51c | 302.04$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c27…b9b9backed Yes | 49c | 109.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26e…036bbacked Yes | 49c | 108.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Yes | 47c | 107.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…9a2bbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 80.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…814cbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 51c | 73.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 76c | 72.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 49c | 70.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 52c | 57.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 46c | 53.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 51c | 40.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 47c | 39.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…7133backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.