Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57350f6f7b379051f8bdc265790889c4736f58ae2892828179d4882e9deaa4bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,897 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 42c | 3,349$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.05 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…a396backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6e…b29dbacked No | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 8c | 1,862$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 62c | 1,805$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 46c | 1,525$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed No | 48c | 1,506$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 12c | 1,496$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 20c | 1,412$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 51c | 1,255$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 8c | 1,171$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 11c | 900$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked Yes | 52c | 899.24$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 12c | 880.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 860.64$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.19 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…af50backed No | 66c | 686.68$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 47c | 685$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.82 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked No | 12c | 654.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 62c | 638$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…4f9fbacked Yes | 57c | 628.24$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 3c | 613.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 27c | 586.47$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 550$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 5c | 547.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 55c | 537.97$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 45c | 529.05$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed Yes | 58c | 515.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 9c | 510$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 57c | 500$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 7c | 474.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Yes | 65c | 460.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 53c | 455.86$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 53c | 450.51$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked No | 8c | 427.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…99c7backed No | 15c | 382.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Yes | 54c | 367.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed No | 41c | 367.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Yes | 52c | 362.16$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3314backed No | 61c | 360$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…95f3backed No | 61c | 353$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 31c | 352.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 9c | 347.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…0367backed No | 61c | 338$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cf3dbacked No | 61c | 337$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 38c | 326$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked Yes | 38c | 312$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…edd5backed No | 61c | 308$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…0f64backed No | 61c | 304$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…45b3backed No | 67c | 302.34$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked No | 6c | 295$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 24c | 290$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 290$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed No | 6c | 288.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed No | 40c | 282.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed Yes | 47c | 268.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c00…cd0cbacked No | 49c | 251.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 51c | 231.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 66c | 230.11$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 50c | 220.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e49…360cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…d63ebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…d1f4backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…60a1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…e997backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…6e75backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…255cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3f…bdd3backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…03d8backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 37c | 187.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 186.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4459…4f6abacked No | 50c | 168$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…ceb0backed No | 38c | 156.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 155.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…6164backed Yes | 45c | 154.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed No | 46c | 151.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 10c | 145.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…d633backed No | 41c | 135.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +204.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 40c | 133.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 62c | 117.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…93f2backed No | 60c | 112.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…f68abacked No | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Yes | 49c | 111.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…b27cbacked No | 16c | 105.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b2…417ebacked Yes | 50c | 104.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe957…7c66backed No | 56c | 104.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…8956backed No | 44c | 97.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a33…25a7backed No | 14c | 95.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…2b23backed Yes | 56c | 88.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…becebacked No | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b6…a023backed Yes | 41c | 72.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…50b7backed Yes | 79c | 69.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.