Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d64e35e28deebf506e23e1617db22305591bdb6f12a694f1c07b25b890c4f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc5b…1edcbacked Yes | 54c | 1,838$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 47c | 1,076$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…09cebacked No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…7675backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 56c | 805$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.68 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 43c | 755$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…93cdbacked Yes | 30c | 544.44$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 57c | 395.63$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.97 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 387.62$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…7a81backed Yes | 69c | 333.33$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 43c | 320.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.26 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 25c | 305.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12a0…6efebacked No | 33c | 304$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec1…e641backed No | 33c | 304$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…acecbacked No | 33c | 304$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5c0dbacked No | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…67c2backed No | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…26d9backed No | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cc…ca79backed No | 33c | 303$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…9d01backed No | 33c | 302$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 42c | 288.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.27 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Yes | 67c | 255.44$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 251.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 48c | 233.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 67c | 214.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked No | 37c | 214$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7b73backed Yes | 65c | 188$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…0c4dbacked Yes | 67c | 182$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…d994backed Yes | 65c | 176$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…318bbacked Yes | 67c | 175$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…4a17backed Yes | 67c | 164$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9813…bdcebacked Yes | 65c | 163$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ac…1ab5backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…4601backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…f80bbacked Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…43a6backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4893…631cbacked Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…8279backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508c…f5bcbacked Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519b…6821backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…bcfdbacked Yes | 67c | 148$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…04f3backed Yes | 67c | 148$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 143.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f6…cb2dbacked Yes | 67c | 143$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d4…23cebacked Yes | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed No | 35c | 137.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 134.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2406…2475backed Yes | 67c | 134$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…8ceabacked Yes | 65c | 133$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 47c | 132.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 52c | 129.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 46c | 126.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 123.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 55c | 81.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 32c | 71.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 38c | 63.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Yes | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…c7bebacked Yes | 56c | 44.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7e…a2e3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 43c | 35.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 35c | 35.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 30.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 44c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…11d9backed Yes | 69c | 26.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 66c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…faf6backed No | 49c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 49c | 22.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…d430backed Yes | 70c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…e8bdbacked Yes | 68c | 21.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 52c | 19.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 68c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.