TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof paiN, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$581,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$663,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,522 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 587 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72aa…90e0backed paiN28c32,395$9,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,134.764,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked paiN36c31,500$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,199.9783652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked paiN33c25,034$8,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,300.839861.2%60 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed paiN36c24,029$8,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,650.421216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-72.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Natus Vincere71c20,298$14,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,963.1132930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed paiN37c20,270$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,499.979247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere68c16,312$11,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,167.841,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked paiN12c16,087$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.654219%8 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4a…4ef5backed Natus Vincere64c15,650$10,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,634977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Natus Vincere64c14,011$8,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,043.829942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed paiN29c11,282$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.8782143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed paiN18c11,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.9932425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked paiN36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.9814934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked paiN34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.987646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed paiN22c9,272$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked paiN44c9,082$3,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,974.58342.2%35 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked paiN32c8,281$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,657.473,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere60c8,266$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.2832348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere67c8,136$5,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,721.131,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed Natus Vincere65c6,923$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.277349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Natus Vincere78c6,485$5,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.7857647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed Natus Vincere63c5,686$3,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.632972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed paiN26c5,497$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.381,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked paiN28c5,442$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.453,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked paiN3c5,373$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.213426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked paiN31c5,245$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.9832752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere66c5,225$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.4823852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked paiN31c5,018$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.061,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.9444848.4%217 W · 231 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd1…8257backed Natus Vincere64c4,900$3,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7641963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed paiN34c4,444$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.964242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Natus Vincere66c4,329$2,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.854763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Natus Vincere70c4,213$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.052766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Natus Vincere63c3,977$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.446343.2%200 W · 263 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Natus Vincere67c3,965$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.539234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed paiN37c3,737$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.7346545.6%212 W · 253 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Natus Vincere62c3,618$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.4228453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked paiN35c3,500$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22010442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere66c3,400$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.9953746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere64c3,250$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.9767041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere65c3,155$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.171,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere64c3,138$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.1615050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Natus Vincere67c3,129$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.6124440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99046949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed paiN35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…3d41backed paiN44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.991752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed paiN34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.978042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere66c2,998$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.961,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Natus Vincere77c2,857$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.143452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Natus Vincere63c2,800$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.831553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked paiN34c2,787$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.5361228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Natus Vincere66c2,728$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.4421455.6%119 W · 95 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed paiN36c2,712$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.425149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed paiN35c2,600$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.59442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Natus Vincere66c2,576$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.7634156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed paiN18c2,571$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.796648.5%32 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Natus Vincere63c2,500$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93013646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Natus Vincere64c2,490$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.419247.9%92 W · 100 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked paiN35c2,482$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.4427133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Natus Vincere70c2,469$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.413537.8%51 W · 84 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5945…67cabacked Natus Vincere56c2,380$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.371250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Natus Vincere63c2,181$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.49144%40 W · 51 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked paiN32c2,032$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.236347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Natus Vincere67c2,005$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.711850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed paiN37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed paiN10c2,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x414c…f10bbacked Natus Vincere64c1,959$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Natus Vincere62c1,919$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.8910951.4%56 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere78c1,906$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.1576657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed paiN35c1,900$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.988657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Natus Vincere63c1,857$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.142250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Natus Vincere66c1,762$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.1232548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Natus Vincere67c1,727$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.976253.2%33 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed paiN36c1,700$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6121258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4294…a1c8backed paiN34c1,627$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere66c1,582$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.9960848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Natus Vincere57c1,567$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.3641850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa850…f1babacked Natus Vincere66c1,523$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.73237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Natus Vincere67c1,512$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.1242638%162 W · 264 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked paiN35c1,509$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.762,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Natus Vincere63c1,506$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.351,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked paiN34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51023932.2%77 W · 162 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed paiN34c1,499$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.6626549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked paiN32c1,402$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.261,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed paiN30c1,350$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.973333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a4…2a56backed Natus Vincere66c1,332$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0496…a7cfbacked paiN35c1,312$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb46f…0cc2backed Natus Vincere78c1,283$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.321656.3%9 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96d2…2c6fbacked Natus Vincere65c1,245$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.041838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed paiN33c1,206$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked paiN34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9822056.4%124 W · 96 L+19.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Natus Vincere64c1,200$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.9721846.8%102 W · 116 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x242e…e650backed paiN28c1,162$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f20…87c9backed paiN35c1,155$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.251154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c05…578fbacked Natus Vincere56c1,128$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.042060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Natus Vincere57c1,100$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47375545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere66c1,061$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.7820050.5%101 W · 99 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked paiN46c1,054$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.852045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce3…6e9cbacked Natus Vincere65c1,001$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb4…4678backed Natus Vincere65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3502100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.