Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3665b772dd8584986e4d5dc5c576497a067f11d851c93916b78f2f6adcef1269

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,445,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $892,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,445,611 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 514 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	8c	74,705$6,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,118.22	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	7c	61,656$4,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,501.97	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	61,497$3,598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,598.19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	14c	17,292$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350.24	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	14c	16,608$2,268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,268.06	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	14c	15,260$2,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,071.44	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	17c	14,646$2,507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,506.52	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Yes	3c	14,526$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.64	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	10c	13,053$1,310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,309.89	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	9c	12,781$1,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,094.46	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	10c	11,460$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.62	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	8c	11,354$854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.03	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	12c	10,939$1,262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,262.4	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	6c	10,936$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.19	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	8c	9,225$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.47	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	11c	9,023$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	8,171$1,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,168.58	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6429…573fbacked Yes	7c	7,574$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes	8c	7,525$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	7,269$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.12	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	8c	6,542$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.76	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	26c	6,311$1,671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,671.35	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	6,196$1,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,076	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	5,900$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.9	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	13c	5,600$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	9c	5,456$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.05	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28a0…9884backed Yes	7c	5,244$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.54	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	27c	5,022$1,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.97	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	78c	4,873$3,822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,051.19	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	22c	4,653$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040.5	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	11c	4,606$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.14	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	25c	4,602$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,136	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	14c	4,300$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	4,230$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.6	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e0…3544backed Yes	1c	4,181$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	6c	4,107$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.09	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	22c	4,097$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.06	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,907$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.07	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	3,771$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.73	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	13c	3,764$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.13	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	25c	3,693$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.89	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	7c	3,521$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.83	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	13c	3,434$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.85	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	15c	3,415$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	9c	3,370$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.02	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	2c	3,278$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.21	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	5c	3,000$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	21c	2,991$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.58	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	5c	2,986$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.8	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4243…47a8backed Yes	11c	2,975$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.41	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	20c	2,899$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.3	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	2,863$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.22	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	17c	2,566$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.9	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	9c	2,525$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.3	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76dc…61f4backed Yes	4c	2,520$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	2,506$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.33	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	8c	2,488$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.54	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ce…3c79backed Yes	14c	2,484$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	3c	2,300$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	12c	2,172$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.04	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	7c	2,150$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.5	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	6c	2,123$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.85	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	9c	2,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.91	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	7c	2,089$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.68	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	12c	2,040$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	8c	2,022$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.31	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	11c	2,002$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.44	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b02…ae87backed Yes	27c	1,977$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.79	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36f5…9c6cbacked Yes	15c	1,915$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.3	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	15c	1,867$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.39	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No	79c	1,865$1,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.67	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	74cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019b…960abacked Yes	14c	1,806$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.62	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	1,799$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.23	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	11c	1,784$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.92	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	12c	1,751$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.86	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	1,707$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.19	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dab…38fabacked Yes	29c	1,700$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	15c	1,599$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.78	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	6c	1,547$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.31	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes	10c	1,539$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cca…f402backed Yes	15c	1,538$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes	12c	1,528$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.13	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	7c	1,500$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.51	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes	13c	1,500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.4	104	22.1%23 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cd…c66abacked Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes	10c	1,498$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.05	197	26.9%53 W · 144 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc4…4d51backed Yes	1c	1,451$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	7c	1,420$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	11c	1,403$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.61	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	14c	1,401$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.14	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	5c	1,400$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	5c	1,399$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.99	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	10c	1,397$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	14c	1,395$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.3	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	11c	1,351$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	12c	1,347$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.93	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event