Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e1cf972079a6c22f81f080187deb110402de20d9a5f82b9c8bd8ebe72acdf2

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $386,071
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $125,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,071 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	31,138$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.14	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	25,402$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	13,560$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	7,235$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.14	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,077$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	5,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.83	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,149$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,025$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6d…41c6backed Yes	2c	2,018$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.81	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	1c	1,959$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.58	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,741$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.66	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,685$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	1,559$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	3c	1,523$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.37	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	1c	1,250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	1,135$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	961.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	1c	852.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…5dbebacked Yes	2c	645.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	545.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event