Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718f6e68679e876a9db1fe60b8ca5da548caca72a94acaf9db788db5649a8547

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $695,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $380,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,941 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	46,977$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860.2	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	6c	22,641$1,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,285.05	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x015b…33f8backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	17cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	18,049$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.78	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	1c	13,121$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.35	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	2c	10,953$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.04	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	8,726$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.65	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	8,036$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1812…4757backed Yes	2c	6,912$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	2c	6,761$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.44	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	4c	6,742$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	6,501$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	6,500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	2c	6,133$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.36	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	4c	5,638$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.51	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	5,151$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.64	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf62b…5bbfbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,464$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.09	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	4,256$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	4,250$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.75	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	4c	4,002$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.97	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c3…b145backed Yes	1c	3,703$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	64	14.1%9 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	3,437$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	2c	3,353$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	3,275$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.03	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	1c	3,033$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,547$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.19	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	2,506$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.16	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	7c	2,431$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	0c	2,334$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	2,205$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	2c	2,168$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.86	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	2,101$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	2,023$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.59	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	1c	2,019$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x901a…dc86backed Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b9…19d0backed Yes	1c	1,998$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	2cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	1,993$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,917$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	1,865$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacc1…bd30backed Yes	1c	1,811$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	1,783$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.75	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,768$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.43	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,693$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x986a…4a34backed Yes	1c	1,667$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	1c	1,658$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb0…0f48backed Yes	2c	1,655$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	12c	1,654$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,523$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.33	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	1,500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.87	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	1,500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.56	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	1,414$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.84	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	2c	1,390$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.12	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes	2c	1,372$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,314$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.45	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	2c	1,203$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.36	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	1c	1,117$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01bd…ef45backed Yes	1c	1,102$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	2c	1,050$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb21…fcb1backed Yes	1c	1,023$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	3c	999.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	2c	999.96$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.53	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	4c	999.81$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf2c…dd61backed Yes	2c	848.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x56e4…91e9backed Yes	2c	807.84$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	9c	761.45$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.53	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…a387backed Yes	2c	755.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7f…cccdbacked Yes	4c	749.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	738.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa775…334ebacked Yes	2c	709.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	3c	674.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	2c	644.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b44…9287backed Yes	3c	600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	559.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	3c	535.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	534.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	5c	464.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes	4c	456.37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	330	27.9%92 W · 238 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	2c	456$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	452.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ce…ed9abacked Yes	2c	452.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	5cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	5c	442.03$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	11c	437.05$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.08	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e8…0121backed Yes	3c	435.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	2c	431.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa653…444ebacked Yes	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	2c	414.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event