Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5f9c1773a234a066240240f8989c8b643fa46844a52c32a22e006add2df25f

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $517,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $159,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,770 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	27,600$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	17,973$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	14,378$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.32	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	11,426$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	11,096$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.17	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	8,661$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	6,806$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.93	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,585$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.35	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	6,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,622$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.71	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda26…8f58backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd892…d43abacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,685$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	0c	3,895$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	4c	3,346$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	1c	3,146$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	2,865$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.47	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,497$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	3c	2,458$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.35	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	1c	2,384$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	1c	2,100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,013$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	2c	2,008$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.1	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	1c	1,954$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.12	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,835$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b9…19d0backed Yes	1c	1,818$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	2cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes	1c	1,699$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+3.7wins	+0.19per pick	16cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,638$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,508$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.11	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,456$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	1c	1,384$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,301$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	2c	1,172$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	1,124$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.62	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,024$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	2c	1,021$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff4…7e9abacked Yes	3c	1,009$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	972.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	971.63$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	815.9$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.81	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	785.72$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	4c	709$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.44	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked Yes	3c	689.34$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	680.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.51	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	606.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	4c	569.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	544.48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9438…5ab8backed Yes	6c	544.15$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	3c	534.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	510$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	4c	505.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	3c	440.35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	2c	400.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b57…5975backed Yes	4c	348.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	4c	316.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.23	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	270.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event