Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c17856691b107f9890de7efe31ac73f9a21a1e7b7d32fd52bdfa29be1c12f5

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $207,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $96,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	0c	5,020$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,118$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.44	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x691a…a387backed Yes	0c	3,944$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	0c	3,650$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,057$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	1,662$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	2c	1,521$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.57	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b44…9287backed Yes	2c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	1c	1,304$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,239$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf804…8028backed Yes	3c	1,200$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	1,115$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,046$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,033$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,009$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	977.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	849.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	822.24$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.86	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	809.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	3c	747.24$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	713.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	2c	700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	4c	656.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe7…b0e5backed Yes	4c	544.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	3c	399.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cdd…f1c7backed Yes	3c	339.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+209.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	4c	305.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event