Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd166ae9acff12755260e3b76545bcff54d52387bcef1a2f3f7b1e732ffc3057a

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $503,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $213,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $503,274 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x654d…475dbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88f4…bbabbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	0c	16,559$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9384…45e0backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	14,940$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,654$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	13,043$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	9,738$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.18	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	8,549$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	5,814$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,308$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.74	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	5,251$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	1c	4,473$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	3,808$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.26	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	3,480$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.36	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,681$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.45	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,644$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	2,496$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.06	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a1…19e7backed Yes	7c	2,402$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.75	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	5c	2,359$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.4	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	9c	2,313$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.42	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…a387backed Yes	1c	2,280$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	1c	2,232$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	3c	2,162$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.96	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	1c	2,104$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,852$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	5c	1,460$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.27	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b44…9287backed Yes	2c	1,300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes	1c	1,092$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	9c	1,071$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.24	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	5c	1,006$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.36	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	972.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	970.16$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	2c	813.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	16c	812$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.75	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	2c	800$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	790$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	9c	788.1$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca7f…cccdbacked Yes	4c	750$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	6c	690$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.4	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	8c	605.4$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a8…62c9backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	3c	525$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	480$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	4c	455.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff4…7e9abacked Yes	3c	389.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	5c	371$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	364.48$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3d…7946backed Yes	3c	363.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	3c	324.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	299.23$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x308a…eed3backed Yes	7c	288.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+62.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff0…c634backed Yes	5c	260$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes	4c	245.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd5…2036backed Yes	8c	230$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.26	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	54	14.8%8 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d27…cf39backed Yes	7c	168.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730d…98c0backed Yes	6c	167$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-77.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	11c	139.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f5e…343cbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event