Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30022562d496db17ccfe78b12fd81bd0fe096c6d2539874e45660da2a2067126

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $469,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $182,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $469,863 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	44,945$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.94	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	23,919$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,635$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.07	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	7,902$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.35	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	6,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	6,376$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.19	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	5,595$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	5,060$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.81	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b9…19d0backed Yes	0c	5,004$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.13	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	2cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	4,470$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.97	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	4,074$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.92	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	3,893$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.33	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	1c	2,703$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	1c	2,428$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,195$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,063$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.86	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,994$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd41b…8649backed Yes	3c	1,982$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,851$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,833$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	1c	1,497$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.03	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	1,428$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.33	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,336$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3ff4…7e9abacked Yes	2c	1,318$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…41c6backed Yes	4c	1,243$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	1,150$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	2c	846.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	828.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	3c	827.02$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.91	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	728.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6745…3e52backed Yes	3c	653.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	2c	639.54$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	2c	615.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	4c	580.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	3c	470.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked Yes	3c	353.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event