Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0064f5fb9e64d57b5474de034b50b307fd88608b2c6d79ec67ae430053010d7b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $667,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $228,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $667,440 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	43,696$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.22	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	23,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	22,768$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.48	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	13,639$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.04	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	12,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	8,880$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.61	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	7,596$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.79	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,420$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.59	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	6,730$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.16	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	6,408$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.47	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,204$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.03	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	4c	5,965$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.37	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	4c	5,158$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.92	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	1c	5,013$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	0c	5,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	4,637$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	1c	3,737$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	5c	3,473$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.15	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	1c	3,431$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	3,158$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	2,948$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.66	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,919$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.15	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b9…19d0backed Yes	1c	2,900$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.23	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	2cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	2,545$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	3c	2,200$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c7…1488backed Yes	1c	2,110$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.42	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,910$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.92	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	3c	1,879$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.67	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,875$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,812$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.17	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3e…8e25backed Yes	4c	1,600$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.81	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	4c	1,561$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.05	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	2c	1,526$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	1,497$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	2c	1,445$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	1,326$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.58	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	2c	1,310$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	3c	1,016$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,006$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	7c	952.34$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.85	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	942.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	853.69$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes	2c	843.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+3.7wins	+0.19per pick	16cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	2c	805$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	7c	789$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.33	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes	5c	743.01$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	690.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	6c	669.44$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.39	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	4c	657.2$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked Yes	6c	645.87$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.15	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes	4c	631$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1604…c826backed Yes	2c	627.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff4…7e9abacked Yes	6c	620.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes	4c	586$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.85	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	546.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	542$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	540.66$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.86	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	6c	510.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	509.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.65	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d25…aa79backed Yes	7c	500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15cc…40a3backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf07b…be61backed Yes	2c	499.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.42per pick	8cpaid	+280.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	499.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	4c	488.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.48	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	486.92$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	483.07$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87bc…ff29backed Yes	5c	480.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	4c	466.51$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff26…c6e9backed Yes	4c	465.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	431.28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	3c	403$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes	4c	402$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d02…14eabacked Yes	3c	382.35$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…5975backed Yes	4c	347$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	342.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…5ab8backed Yes	9c	335.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	4c	311.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes	7c	286.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Yes	5c	271.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes	6c	259.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	5c	241.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85eb…5cedbacked Yes	9c	211.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes	5c	211.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes	5c	204.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c75…98d2backed Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x094c…e608backed Yes	9c	182.39$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	7c	144.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event