Fifa International · resolved market
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7505e17d8b7016678e65f03dce21e99ef42c556c6eead5b3f4f4f8577de908df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 41c | 27,902$11,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,501 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 64c | 15,543$9,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,583.87 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…a4d3backed Yes | 62c | 13,398$8,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,091.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 63c | 8,910$5,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.57 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 62c | 6,021$3,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.11 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 58c | 5,585$3,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.46 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…f0e1backed Yes | 61c | 2,833$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.91 | 380 | 26.6%101 W · 279 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…9815backed Yes | 68c | 1,858$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.28 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…8322backed Yes | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 1,427$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.29 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 28c | 1,376$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.23 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 19c | 1,296$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.08 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…add1backed Yes | 47c | 1,012$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.3 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 991$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 26c | 540$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 420.55$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.39 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 416.08$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.14 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 393.03$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.82 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 41c | 390.24$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…7973backed Yes | 14c | 334.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…8677backed Yes | 62c | 325$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…982cbacked Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 299.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.52 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 271.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…ee7abacked No | 20c | 243$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…4fd7backed Yes | 59c | 221.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…3c32backed Yes | 47c | 218.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 13c | 204$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 79c | 200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…e4bebacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked Yes | 61c | 160.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…e3c6backed No | 39c | 158.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 157.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 152.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 119.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 116.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 105.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 34c | 105.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed No | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…e49cbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 32c | 76.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…a724backed No | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 65.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…18f6backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 64c | 60.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 23c | 58.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed No | 42c | 57.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 77c | 57.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…8847backed Yes | 61c | 50.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 33c | 49.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…eab5backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…b71ebacked Yes | 47c | 43.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 50c | 42.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 50c | 41.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…70dabacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 63c | 35.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 50c | 35.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…ba8fbacked No | 34c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa72…2410backed Yes | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.