Fifa International · resolved market
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3697587daa1fbdcdbcdf157ff6189d1f89bbc62cee56fb372bd2ecb43f1e5649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 661.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 405.21$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.54 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 385.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 310.92$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…54dcbacked Yes | 8c | 237.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 227.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 33c | 199.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 181.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 13c | 176.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…f853backed Yes | 47c | 105.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 77.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 54c | 74.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed Yes | 40c | 55.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 59c | 51.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 50.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 25c | 44.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8f…266bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes | 27c | 43.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 168 | 47%79 W · 89 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes | 40c | 43.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 54c | 41.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…3afabacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 33c | 34.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 50c | 26.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 51c | 25.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…6ef4backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e0…3e9abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…1d65backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…2453backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…4256backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
- Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.